Last week, city council member Sofyan Mbarki (Social-Democrats) proposed a motion to ban holiday rentals in Amsterdam neighbourhoods such as the Haarlemmerbuurt, the Kinkerbuurt and the Wallen. A concentration of holiday rentals results in rising house prices, lower social cohesion, increasing pressure on the housing market and inequality, he argued. The motion has support from a majority of the council.
The city government is inclined to implement the motion, but alderman Laurens Ivens (Socialist Party) wants to study the legal aspects. He considers the neighbourhoods mentioned in the motion good candidates for a ban on holiday rentals, but he doesn’t rule out that other neighbourhoods may be selected.
So what neighbourhoods might qualify? One criterion might be Airbnb density, which is shown on the map below (for caveats see Method below).
Unsurprisingly, neighbourhoods with high Airbnb density overlap with areas where residents complain about holiday rentals: Centrum-West, Centrum-Oost, Westerpark, Oud-West/De Baarsjes and De Pijp/Rivierenbuurt (source).
Airbnb frequently claims that it contributes to tourist dispersion because many hosts are located outside the city centre. However, the map suggests that Airbnb is in fact heavily concentrated in neighbourhoods such as the Wallen, the Jordaan, the Pijp and the Kinkerbuurt. While some of these neighbourhoods are outside the city centre, the pattern appears to be concentration rather than dispersion.
While these neighbourhoods would be likely candidates for a ban on holiday rentals, Ivens may also want to anticipate future developments. A number of neighbourhoods still have a relatively low Airbnb density, but have seen their density double or even almost triple over the past three years: Transvaalbuurt, Hoofdweg e.o., Van Galenbuurt and Westindische Buurt.
UPDATE - It was rightly pointed out that Airbnb density partly reflects housing density. An alternative measure would be Airbnb relative to addresses or population. However, this would result in high values for some areas with low population density where holiday rentals don’t appear to be perceived as much as a problem as in some of the more densely populated areas.
- Is tourist dispersion working? An analysis of Lonely Planet maps
- Airbnb’s agreement with Amsterdam: some insights from scraped data
Both Murray Cox’s Inside Airbnb and Tom Slee provide data collected by scraping the Airbnb website. While this data has some limitations, it’s probably the best publicly available data source on Airbnb. Since Tom Slee stopped collecting data last year, I used Inside Airbnb data for the current article. A discussion of methodological aspects related to that data is here.
In addition, I used land surface data from Statistics Netherlands (CBS). This data is for 2017.
I calculated an indicator for Airbnb density in the following way:
- I assigned each listing to a neighbourhood (note that coordinates for listings aren’t 100% accurate as discussed by Cox);
- For each listing, I calculated an indicator for the number of stays as: reviews per month (an indicator of the number of rentals) * the minimum length of stay (capped at 3 nights following this study) * the number of beds (an indicator for the number of guests, capped at 4 because that’s the maximum number of guests allowed by local regulations);
- I summed that number for each neighbourhood and divided that by the land surface of the neighbourhood (ha).
Note that the indicator for the number stays will not be equal to the actual number of stays, for a number of reasons:
- It’s possible that not all beds are occupied;
- Not all guests write a review (Cox suggests the number of rentals could be twice as high as the number of reviews);
- People may stay longer than the minimum number of nights;
- Sometimes more than four people may stay in an Airbnb, despite the fact that that’s not allowed;
- For some listings, the indicator could not be calculated because of missing data (about 11.4%).
According to Airbnb, the number of stays in Amsterdam is 2.5 million. Based on that number, the actual number of stays would be about 3 times as high as the indicator for the number of stays I calculated. Given the considerations listed above, that’s more or less what one would expect.
Python script here.